Larsen & Toubro
Earnings fine, guidance falls short
Event
�� L&T reported 2QFY12 numbers ahead of consensus; however, the company
lowered guidance on order inflows and margins. The cut in order inflow was
anticipated, while the margin cut is a negative surprise. We cut our standalone
earnings by 11% for FY13E and our target price to Rs1,728 (from Rs2,074).
We remain positive on a 12 month view despite near-term pressure on order
inflow as valuations now factor in close to no growth in order inflows.
Impact
�� Order inflow guidance cut foregone conclusion, focus on revised
guidance: The company has cut its order inflow growth guidance from 15% to
5%. However, this was anticipated since the loss of orders in the NTPC bulk
tender. Favourable outcomes in some of the large hydrocarbon orders in India
and the Middle East become critical for achieving guidance, which implies
18% order inflow growth in 2HFY12. We are building in 2% growth for FY12.
�� Larger margin decline guidance a surprise, quantum not alarming:
Company has revised its guidance for E&C margin from a 50-75bps decline to
75-125bps decline on account of old legacy fixed price contracts. Though this
is negative, we would resist from extrapolating a significant downtrend as the
industry does not have too much room for margin cuts due to high leverage.
�� Execution remains on track: L&T continues to guide for 25% revenue
growth in FY12. It has achieved 20% growth in 1HFY12. The guidance is
encouraging despite the proportion of slow moving orders increasing from 6%
to 8-10%. One of the factors which would support execution is that the
proportion of long lead power orders has fallen from a peak of 37% last year
to 31%, while infra has increased from 31% to 37%.
Earnings and target price revision
�� We bring down our standalone EPS by 9% in FY12 and 11% in FY13. Our
target price has come down to Rs1,728 (from Rs2,074).
Price catalyst
�� 12-month price target: Rs1,728.00 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
�� Catalyst: Order inflow announcements in line with guidance.
Action and recommendation
�� Higher multiple as we still view current downturn as cyclical: Our target price
is based on 18x average of FY12E and FY13E earnings. Our valuations
multiple is at a significant premium to BHEL as we continue to believe L&T is
much better placed to see revival in order inflow growth as it is exposed to
most of the engines of growth. The downside to multiples would be higher if
the downturn persists for much longer than anticipated.
�� Downside is limited from current levels in our view: The stock adjusted for
subs valuation is trading at around 15x FY12E and 13x FY13E. This indicates
it is building in close to no order inflow growth scenario, which is the same as
BHEL.
Earnings fine, guidance falls short
Event
�� L&T reported 2QFY12 numbers ahead of consensus; however, the company
lowered guidance on order inflows and margins. The cut in order inflow was
anticipated, while the margin cut is a negative surprise. We cut our standalone
earnings by 11% for FY13E and our target price to Rs1,728 (from Rs2,074).
We remain positive on a 12 month view despite near-term pressure on order
inflow as valuations now factor in close to no growth in order inflows.
Impact
�� Order inflow guidance cut foregone conclusion, focus on revised
guidance: The company has cut its order inflow growth guidance from 15% to
5%. However, this was anticipated since the loss of orders in the NTPC bulk
tender. Favourable outcomes in some of the large hydrocarbon orders in India
and the Middle East become critical for achieving guidance, which implies
18% order inflow growth in 2HFY12. We are building in 2% growth for FY12.
�� Larger margin decline guidance a surprise, quantum not alarming:
Company has revised its guidance for E&C margin from a 50-75bps decline to
75-125bps decline on account of old legacy fixed price contracts. Though this
is negative, we would resist from extrapolating a significant downtrend as the
industry does not have too much room for margin cuts due to high leverage.
�� Execution remains on track: L&T continues to guide for 25% revenue
growth in FY12. It has achieved 20% growth in 1HFY12. The guidance is
encouraging despite the proportion of slow moving orders increasing from 6%
to 8-10%. One of the factors which would support execution is that the
proportion of long lead power orders has fallen from a peak of 37% last year
to 31%, while infra has increased from 31% to 37%.
Earnings and target price revision
�� We bring down our standalone EPS by 9% in FY12 and 11% in FY13. Our
target price has come down to Rs1,728 (from Rs2,074).
Price catalyst
�� 12-month price target: Rs1,728.00 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
�� Catalyst: Order inflow announcements in line with guidance.
Action and recommendation
�� Higher multiple as we still view current downturn as cyclical: Our target price
is based on 18x average of FY12E and FY13E earnings. Our valuations
multiple is at a significant premium to BHEL as we continue to believe L&T is
much better placed to see revival in order inflow growth as it is exposed to
most of the engines of growth. The downside to multiples would be higher if
the downturn persists for much longer than anticipated.
�� Downside is limited from current levels in our view: The stock adjusted for
subs valuation is trading at around 15x FY12E and 13x FY13E. This indicates
it is building in close to no order inflow growth scenario, which is the same as
BHEL.
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