Reliance Communications (RCOM)
Telecom
Cut estimates further; stock has little fundamental upside. RCOM’s 2QFY12
earnings call failed to provide clarity on the low net finance costs and the absence of
EBITDA flowthrough of increasing RPM in the India wireless business. Poor non-wireless
performance drives a 7-9% cut in our EBITDA estimates for FY2012-14E. We see little
fundamental upside to the stock despite building in further improvement in the India
wireless business. SELL rating stays with an unchanged end-FY2013E TP of Rs80/share.
Little upside on fundamentals; stock likely to trade on news flow in the near term
Steady revenue and EBITDA performance for the past couple of quarters can be seen as an
improvement for a company whose financials had been on a downward path for many quarters
prior. Nonetheless, at 6.6X FY2013E EV/EBITDA on an EBITDA estimate that calls for strong
sustained improvement from here, steady performance should be seen as a disappointment.
Disappointment it was, at least to us, driving a 7-9% cut in our FY2012-14E EBITDA estimate.
We highlight that even our revised EBITDA estimates build in strong EBITDA improvement over the
coming quarters, primarily on the back of sustained RPM improvement and volume uptick in the
India wireless segment. Our estimates can not be termed conservative, in that light.
At 6.6X FY2013E EV/EBITDA, we struggle to build in a fundamental-led upside case. Of course,
there are expectations of massive de-leveraging at RCOM driven by sale of tower assets. We
believe valuation upside from such a transaction can accrue from two factors – (1) tower sale at
higher-than-expected (8-10X) valuation on an EV/EBITDA basis – EV/EBITDA is more important
than EV/tower as that would indicate the EBITDA dilution at the parent company on account of
such a transaction, and (2) better operating performance from the post-tower-sale opco, arguably,
with lower balance sheet constraints. Neither of these should be seen as a given at this point,
though the stock will likely keep reacting to news flow on the tower sale front. News flow-led
substantial upside deviation from fair value should be seen as an opportunity to sell, in our view.
Consolidated estimates go down, driven by cuts to non-wireless forecasts
Exhibit 1 gives the key changes to our FY2012-14E financial model for RCOM. We broadly
maintain our revenue and EBITDA estimates for the wireless segment – increase in RPM and
EBITDA margin estimates makes up for the downward revision to our volume estimates. Sharp cut
in non-wireless forecasts drives a 7-8% reduction in revenue and 7-9% cut in EBITDA estimates for
FY2012-14E. Our revised EBITDA estimates for FY2012E, 13E, and 14E stand at Rs68 bn, Rs78 bn,
and Rs89 bn, respectively. EPS estimate for FY2012E goes up to Rs4.05 on account of lower-thanearlier
net finance costs and ETR. We, however, reduce our FY2013E and FY2014E EPS estimate by
22% and 13% to Rs4.04 and Rs7.16, respectively.
Earnings call fails to provide clarity on low net finance costs
Not the easiest thing to do for an analyst, but we admit that we do not understand and
cannot reconcile either the absolute levels of or the qoq movements in the net finance costs
reported by RCOM. The company reported a decline of Rs1.8 bn qoq in its absolute net
finance costs to Rs2.3 bn for 2QFY12. Absolute levels imply a net interest cost of 3.4% on
average ex-FCCB net debt of Rs265 bn – low in our view. In addition, the decline in net
finance costs qoq despite average net debt staying flat qoq surprised us.
We do note that this is not the first time RCOM’s reported net finance costs have surprised
us. Exhibit 3 depicts the deviation of RCOM’s reported net finance costs versus our most
conservative estimate. We note that our computations exclude any interest accrual on
outstanding FCCBs. RCOM did explain that forex gains or losses routed through the P&L
drive the quarterly variation in reported net finance costs; however, we still fail to
understand how the company has forex gains routed through the P&L nearly every quarter
(per our computations) despite varying directional movement in the currencies in different
quarters.
Other highlights from the earnings call
3G network expanded to 333 towns at end-Sep 2011. RCOM indicated 2.1 mn ‘active’
3G subs at end-Sep 2011 versus 2 mn ‘gross’ at end-June 2011.
Active due diligence on for Reliance Infratel stake sale. # of towers remains steady at
around 50,000.
RCOM maintained its FY2012E capex guidance at Rs15 bn.
RCOM expects competitive intensity in the India wireless segment to remain low. It
expects the recent tariff hikes to start flowing through meaningfully over the next couple
of quarter and indicated a 1 paise/min positive RPM flowthrough by 4QFY12E.
Non-voice revenues contributed 20% to the company’s wireless revenues for the quarter.
Sharp SG&A increase during the quarter was on account of increased advertising on the
brand.
Telecom
Cut estimates further; stock has little fundamental upside. RCOM’s 2QFY12
earnings call failed to provide clarity on the low net finance costs and the absence of
EBITDA flowthrough of increasing RPM in the India wireless business. Poor non-wireless
performance drives a 7-9% cut in our EBITDA estimates for FY2012-14E. We see little
fundamental upside to the stock despite building in further improvement in the India
wireless business. SELL rating stays with an unchanged end-FY2013E TP of Rs80/share.
Little upside on fundamentals; stock likely to trade on news flow in the near term
Steady revenue and EBITDA performance for the past couple of quarters can be seen as an
improvement for a company whose financials had been on a downward path for many quarters
prior. Nonetheless, at 6.6X FY2013E EV/EBITDA on an EBITDA estimate that calls for strong
sustained improvement from here, steady performance should be seen as a disappointment.
Disappointment it was, at least to us, driving a 7-9% cut in our FY2012-14E EBITDA estimate.
We highlight that even our revised EBITDA estimates build in strong EBITDA improvement over the
coming quarters, primarily on the back of sustained RPM improvement and volume uptick in the
India wireless segment. Our estimates can not be termed conservative, in that light.
At 6.6X FY2013E EV/EBITDA, we struggle to build in a fundamental-led upside case. Of course,
there are expectations of massive de-leveraging at RCOM driven by sale of tower assets. We
believe valuation upside from such a transaction can accrue from two factors – (1) tower sale at
higher-than-expected (8-10X) valuation on an EV/EBITDA basis – EV/EBITDA is more important
than EV/tower as that would indicate the EBITDA dilution at the parent company on account of
such a transaction, and (2) better operating performance from the post-tower-sale opco, arguably,
with lower balance sheet constraints. Neither of these should be seen as a given at this point,
though the stock will likely keep reacting to news flow on the tower sale front. News flow-led
substantial upside deviation from fair value should be seen as an opportunity to sell, in our view.
Consolidated estimates go down, driven by cuts to non-wireless forecasts
Exhibit 1 gives the key changes to our FY2012-14E financial model for RCOM. We broadly
maintain our revenue and EBITDA estimates for the wireless segment – increase in RPM and
EBITDA margin estimates makes up for the downward revision to our volume estimates. Sharp cut
in non-wireless forecasts drives a 7-8% reduction in revenue and 7-9% cut in EBITDA estimates for
FY2012-14E. Our revised EBITDA estimates for FY2012E, 13E, and 14E stand at Rs68 bn, Rs78 bn,
and Rs89 bn, respectively. EPS estimate for FY2012E goes up to Rs4.05 on account of lower-thanearlier
net finance costs and ETR. We, however, reduce our FY2013E and FY2014E EPS estimate by
22% and 13% to Rs4.04 and Rs7.16, respectively.
Earnings call fails to provide clarity on low net finance costs
Not the easiest thing to do for an analyst, but we admit that we do not understand and
cannot reconcile either the absolute levels of or the qoq movements in the net finance costs
reported by RCOM. The company reported a decline of Rs1.8 bn qoq in its absolute net
finance costs to Rs2.3 bn for 2QFY12. Absolute levels imply a net interest cost of 3.4% on
average ex-FCCB net debt of Rs265 bn – low in our view. In addition, the decline in net
finance costs qoq despite average net debt staying flat qoq surprised us.
We do note that this is not the first time RCOM’s reported net finance costs have surprised
us. Exhibit 3 depicts the deviation of RCOM’s reported net finance costs versus our most
conservative estimate. We note that our computations exclude any interest accrual on
outstanding FCCBs. RCOM did explain that forex gains or losses routed through the P&L
drive the quarterly variation in reported net finance costs; however, we still fail to
understand how the company has forex gains routed through the P&L nearly every quarter
(per our computations) despite varying directional movement in the currencies in different
quarters.
Other highlights from the earnings call
3G network expanded to 333 towns at end-Sep 2011. RCOM indicated 2.1 mn ‘active’
3G subs at end-Sep 2011 versus 2 mn ‘gross’ at end-June 2011.
Active due diligence on for Reliance Infratel stake sale. # of towers remains steady at
around 50,000.
RCOM maintained its FY2012E capex guidance at Rs15 bn.
RCOM expects competitive intensity in the India wireless segment to remain low. It
expects the recent tariff hikes to start flowing through meaningfully over the next couple
of quarter and indicated a 1 paise/min positive RPM flowthrough by 4QFY12E.
Non-voice revenues contributed 20% to the company’s wireless revenues for the quarter.
Sharp SG&A increase during the quarter was on account of increased advertising on the
brand.
No comments:
Post a Comment