November 26, 2011:
Please give me technical view for Gammon India and Punj Lloyd.
R Chandrashekhar
Gammon India (Rs 51): Gammon is spiralling lower ever since the peak at Rs 235 recorded in October last year.
The stock has now reached the long-term support at Rs 50 where it formed the double bottom in December 2008 and then in March 2009.
Investors already holding this stock can continue to do so as long as it trades above this level.
Breach of this level can take the stock to its next long-term support zone that exists between Rs 12 and Rs 14.
The stock will encounter short-term resistance at Rs 80 and then at 100. Medium-term view will turn positive only on a strong close above Rs 138.
Long-term trend in the stock is very weak. It needs to surpass Rs 276 and then Rs 350 before the long-term view turns positive.
Punj Lloyd (Rs 46.8): Punj Lloyd never recovered from the steep fall witnessed in 2008 when the stock tumbled from Rs 589 to Rs 142.
The recovery in 2009 could help the stock retrace only one-third of the losses. After an ephemeral rally to Rs 299, the stock started sliding lower again.
It breached the 2009 low of Rs 68.5 in May, and is currently hovering slightly below this level.
Since the stock has limited trading history, it is hard to determine where it can halt once it breaches the support at Rs 45.
The trends along all time-frames, long- medium- and short-term are currently down in the stock. Investors can switch out of the stock if it declines below Rs 45.
Rallies will face resistance at Rs 142 and Rs 204 in the months ahead.
Investors with a short- or medium-term perspective can exit at either of these levels. Key long-term resistance band lies between Rs 250 and Rs 300.
What are the support and resistance levels for UltraTech Cement and M&M from a one-year perspective?
Parvez Daruwala
UltraTech Cement (Rs 1,117.7): UltraTech Cement is among the rare stocks that have a chart that is pleasing to the eye at this juncture.
The rally in 2009 took the stock to the long-term resistance at Rs 1,170. The stock formed the peak at Rs 1,172 in April 2010 and has been moving sideways in the band between Rs 820 and Rs 1,170 since then.
The stock is forming an ascending triangle pattern in this sideways phase that is positive from a long-term perspective. It implies that once the stock breaks above the upper ceiling at Rs 1,170, it can speed to Rs 1,400.
Investors can hold the stock with stop at Rs 800. The stock can also be bought in declines with the same stop. Supports on a breach of this level are at Rs 712 and Rs 600.
Mahindra & Mahindra (Rs 706.3): Mahindra & Mahindra put up a strong show till October this year when the stock recorded the life-time high at Rs 875.
A pull-back is, however, in progress since then that has pulled the stock to its key medium-term support at Rs 700. This level can act as stop-loss for investors with short- to medium-term perspective.
Strong close below this level will mean that a decline to Rs 600 or Rs 585 is in the offing.
Long-term investors, however, have nothing to worry about as long as the stock trades above Rs 600.
Protracted movement in the range between Rs 600 and Rs 850 will imply the propensity to break higher to Rs 10,20 or Rs 1,284 over the long-term.
That said, it would be best to divest the holding on a close below Rs 600 since subsequent supports are only at Rs 500 and Rs 410.
Please discuss the medium- and long-term outlook of Unichem Laboratories and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals.
Anil
Unichem Laboratories (Rs 105.7): Key long-term support for Unichem Laboratories was at Rs 136.
The stock penetrated this support strongly in November to decline 25 per cent more. It is currently attempting a bottom around the psychological level of Rs 100.
The reversal so far is, however, not strong enough to imply that a sustainable bottom has been formed.
Investors with a low-risk appetite can exit the stock at this point and consider re-investment once it goes on to close above Rs 136. If the slide continues, the stock could move down all the way to Rs 75 or even Rs 54.
Resistances for the medium-term are at Rs 166 and Rs 206. Investors with a short-term perspective can exit if the stock rallies to either of these levels.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (Rs 316): The structural downtrend that began in January 2008 continues to hold sway in Glenmark Pharmaceuticals.
The stock could not get too much past the 38.2 per cent retracement mark of the previous downtrend. The good news is that the correction in the stock since last December is not deep enough to put the uptrend that began in February 2009 in jeopardy.
The stock has medium-term supports at Rs 255 and Rs 224. Investors can hold the stock with stop at Rs 200. This level needs to be breached to signal that a rapid deterioration in the stock price is in the offing. Downward target would then be Rs 124. Resistances for the long-term would be at Rs 390, Rs 424 and then at Rs 500.
Please discuss Muthoot Finance.
Phillip Villoth
Muthoot Finance (Rs 167.8): Not much inference can be drawn regarding the future price movement of Muthoot Finance by studying its graph since it is a newly listed company. The stock has been moving in a wide band between Rs 150 and Rs 200 since its listing in May this year.
Investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 150. The zone between Rs 190 and Rs 200 will continue to act as a resistance in the months ahead.
Please let me know the long-term prospects of Page Industries.
Suresh Thukral.
Page Industries (Rs 2,506.2): Page Industries is powering ahead in a very strong structural uptrend. The corrections since the January 2009 low of Rs 300 have either been very shallow or they have been running-corrections that means that the inherent trend in the stock continues to be positive.
After recording a life-time high at Rs 2,771.9 in August, the stock has been moving in a narrow range between Rs 2,350 and Rs 2,770. The medium- as well as the long-term trend in the stock continues to be up. Medium-term support for the stock is at Rs 2,300 and Rs 2,025. Investors with medium-term perspective can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 2,000.
The long-term support for the stock is much lower at Rs 1,830. Targets on a break above Rs 2,760 are Rs 3,070 and Rs 3,575.
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